Minnesota Poll: Biden leads Trump in Minnesota, but more independents leaning Trump (2024)

MINNEAPOLIS — The 2024 presidential election rematch is shaping up to be a close one across much of the country, and early voter sentiment in Minnesota appears to echo that trend.

A new KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll finds incumbent Democratic President Joe Biden leading Republican former President Donald Trump among registered likely voters in Minnesota, with 44.5% of voters supporting Biden and 40.6% of voters supporting Trump. Activist and attorney Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who is running an independent campaign after dropping out of the Democratic primary, is polling at 6.4% in Minnesota. Less than 2% of respondents support other candidates, while nearly 7% say they're still undecided.

As expected, candidate support falls largely along party lines, with 92.6% of Democrats saying they'll support President Biden this fall, and 90% of Republicans supporting former President Trump. Less than 1 percent (0.4%) of Republicans say they'll vote for President Biden, and a similar number of Democrats (0.4%) say they'll vote for former President Trump.

Support among independent voters is where the race is still fluid. Of the independent voters polled, 37.2% said they plan to vote for former President Trump, a more than 2-percent advantage over President Biden at 34.9%. Kennedy also factors into the independent vote, with 13% support. A significant number of independents, almost 12%, remain undecided.

A majority of younger voters age 18-34 support Biden (53.2% to 34.7% for Trump), while more seniors age 65+ support Trump (50.7% vs. 38% for Biden). Voters with a college degree lean Biden (53.1% to 32.7% for Trump), while voters without a degree lean Trump (48% to 36.8% for Biden). White voters are almost evenly split between the two men (43.4% for Trump, 42.1% for Biden), while a majority of non-white voters support Biden (62.7%) over Trump (21.6%).

Supporters of former President Trump had the most enthusiasm for their candidate, with 61.5% of those who said they'll vote for Trump, saying they're "very enthusiastic" about their candidate. That's compared to 30.9% of Biden voters saying they're "very enthusiastic" for President Biden.

Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump in Minnesota in 2020 by seven percentage points. No Republican candidate has carried the state of Minnesota since Richard Nixon in 1972.

TOP ISSUES

The KARE 11/MPR News/Star Tribune Minnesota Poll also asked voters about the issues that are most important to them in the 2024 election.

Pollsters asked respondents about nine core issues: economy/jobs, abortion, crime, climate change, health care, immigration, Israel/Hamas war, democracy, and SCOTUS.

Of those polled, 27% said democracy was their top issue for the 2024 election, followed by 26.1% who said jobs and the economy were the most important issue for them. Immigration ranked third (14.6%), followed by crime (8.0%), health care (7.0%), climate change (6.9%), abortion (5.8%), the Israel/Hamas war (1.3%) and SCOTUS (1.0%).

JOB APPROVAL

The poll also looked at approval ratings for two main presidential candidates, as well as Democratic U.S. Sen. Amy Klobuchar, who is running for re-election in 2024.

For President Joe Biden, a majority of respondents (52.7%) say they disapprove of the job he's doing as president, with 46.4% of those polled saying they approve. Approval was highest among Democrats (92.9%), women (62.6%) and college graduates (54.4%), while disapproval was nearly universal among Republicans (97.2%) and a large number of independents (59.5%), as well as men (70.2%) and non-college grads (59.6%).

The poll also asked voters about their approval of former President Trump when he was president. Of those polled, a narrow majority (51.5%) said they disapproved of his performance as president, compared to 46.6% who approved. Like the question about President Biden, the approval ratings for former President Trump largely fell along party lines, with 98% of Republicans polled approving of his performance, and 97.5% of Democrats disapproving of his performance as president. The former president's approval was higher among men (64.2%), while disapproval was higher among women (68.4%).

Unlike the presidential candidates, a majority of Minnesota voters approve of the job Sen. Amy Klobuchar has done in Congress, with 54.5% approving of her job performance, compared to 36.3% who disapprove. Klobuchar's approval was highest among Democrats (90.8%), but she also won approval from a majority of independents (52.8%) and a significant number of Republicans (15.3%).

METHODOLOGY

This poll was conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Strategy of Jacksonville, Florida from June 3 through June 5, 2024. A total of 800 registered voters in Minnesota were interviewed statewide by telephone. All indicated they were likely to vote in the 2024 presidential election.

Those interviewed were selected randomly from a telephone-matched Minnesota voter registration list that included both land line and cell phone numbers. Quotas were assigned to reflect voter turnout by county.

The margin for error, according to standards customarily used by statisticians, is no more than ± 3.5 percentage points. This means there is a 95% probability that the "true" figure would fall within that range if all voters were surveyed. The margin for error is higher for any subgroup, such as a gender or age grouping.

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